The Case for Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamics Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
The Case for Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamics Models Wayne Wakeland and Megan Hoarfrost 1 Systems Science Ph.D. Program, Portland State University 2 Stanford University 1 P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207 (503) 725-4975(v) (503) 725-8489 (f) [email protected] Abstract In order to determine whether model testing is as useful as suggested by modeling experts, the full battery of model tests recommended by Forrester, Senge, Sterman, and others was applied retrospectively to a complex previously-published system dynamics model. The time required to carry out each type of test was captured, and the benefits that resulted from applying each test was determined subjectively. The resulting benefit to cost ratios are reported. These ratios suggest that rather than focusing primarily on sensitivity testing, modelers should consider other types of model tests such as extreme condition tests and family member tests. The study also finds that all of the different kinds of tests were either moderately useful or very useful--fully supporting the recommendations of the experts.
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